Graeme Blair
Assistant Professor of Political Science
UCLA
Project on Resources and Governance
Evidence in Governance and Politics
Center for Effective Global Action
I use experiments and field research to study the causes and consequences of violence in developing countries – and what we can do about them. I work primarily in Nigeria and South Africa, often in partnership with government, civil society, or international organizations.
Latest working paper: How does armed conflict shape investment? Evidence from the mining sector.
Armed conflict and violent extremism
How does armed conflict shape civilian attitudes and behaviors? What is different about conflicts involving violent extremist groups? What role do natural resources play in armed conflict?
Rebecca Littman, Graeme Blair, Rebecca Wolfe, Mohammed Bukar, Jiyoung Kim, Yunusa Aina, Yetcha Ajimi Badu, Fatima Abba Kurama, Ahmed Umar Lawan. “Demonstrating genuine change increases victim’s willingness to reconcile with transgressors: Experimental evidence from Nigeria.” 2020.
Graeme Blair, Darin Christensen, Aaron Rudkin. “Do commodity price shocks cause armed conflict? Evidence from a meta-analysis.” 2020.
Preanalysis plan
Graeme Blair, Darin Christensen, Valerie Wirtschafter. “How does armed conflict shape investment? Evidence from the mining sector.” 2020. Revision requested, Journal of Politics.
PDF Appendices
Jason Lyall, Graeme Blair, Kosuke Imai. “Explaining support for combatants during wartime: A survey experiment in Afghanistan.” American Political Science Review, 2013.
PDF MPSA Pi Sigma Alpha Award Replication
Graeme Blair, Christine Fair, Neil Malhotra, Jacob N. Shapiro. “Poverty and support for militant politics: Evidence from Pakistan.” American Journal of Political Science, 2013.
PDF Replication Appendices
Crime and policing
Can community policing reduce crime and build trust in police?
Graeme Blair, Fotini Christia, Jeremy Weinstein, Eric Arias, Emile Badran, Robert A. Blair, Ali Cheema, Thiemo Fetzer, Guy Grossman, Dotan Haim, Rebecca Hanson, Ali Hasanain, Ben Kachero, Dorothy Kronick, Benjamin Morse, Robert Muggah, Matthew Nanes, Tara Slough, Nico Ravanilla, Jacob N. Shapiro, Barbara Silva, Pedro C. L. Souza, Lily Tsai, and Anna Wilke. Crime, Insecurity, and Community Policing: Evidence on Building Trust. Book manuscript in preparation.
Metaketa project
Graeme Blair, Fotini Christia, Jeremy Weinstein, Eric Arias, Emile Badran, Robert A. Blair, Ali Cheema, Thiemo Fetzer, Guy Grossman, Dotan Haim, Rebecca Hanson, Ali Hasanain, Ben Kachero, Dorothy Kronick, Benjamin Morse, Robert Muggah, Matthew Nanes, Tara Slough, Nico Ravanilla, Jacob N. Shapiro, Barbara Silva, Pedro C. L. Souza, Lily Tsai, and Anna Wilke. “Building Trusted, Effective Police in the Global South: Evidence on Community Policing from Six Coordinated Field Experiments.” Working paper.
Metaketa project Preanalysis plan
Encouraging prosocial behaviors
How can we encourage and sustain prosocial citizen behaviors to reduce conflict and improve governance?
Graeme Blair, Mohammed Bukar, Rebecca Littman, Elizabeth Nugent, Rebecca Wolfe, Benjamin Crisman, Anthony Etim, and Chad Hazlett. “Religious Leaders Can Change Minds and Shift Norms.” 2020. Under review.
Graeme Blair, Rebecca Littman, Elizabeth Levy Paluck. “Motivating the adoption of new community-minded behaviors: An empirical test in Nigeria.” Science Advances, 2019.
PDF Project Policy brief Replication Preanalysis plan Appendices
Improving research designs
How can we improve our research designs before we implement them? How do we know if we have selected a good research design?
BITSS Leamer-Rosenthal Prize; SIPS Commendation
Graeme Blair, Jasper Cooper, Alexander Coppock, Macartan Humphreys. Research Design: Declaration, Diagnosis, and Redesign. Under advance contract, Princeton University Press.
Graeme Blair, Jasper Cooper, Alexander Coppock, Macartan Humphreys. “Declaring and diagnosing research designs.” American Political Science Review, 2019.
PDF Replication Appendices
Graeme Blair and Gwyneth McClendon. “Experiments in Multiple Contexts.” In Donald P. Green and James Druckman, Handbook of Experimental Political Science, forthcoming, Cambridge University Press.
PDF
Research tools
Polmeth Statistical Software Award
Graeme Blair, Jasper Cooper, Alexander Coppock, Macartan Humphreys, and Neal Fultz. “DeclareDesign: Declare and Diagnose Research Designs.” R package.
Web Cheatsheet
Graeme Blair, Jasper Cooper, Alexander Coppock, Macartan Humphreys, and Luke Sonnet. “estimatr: Fast Estimators for Design-Based Inference.” R package.
Web Cheatsheet
Graeme Blair, Jasper Cooper, Alexander Coppock, Macartan Humphreys, Aaron Rudkin, and Neal Fultz. “fabricatr: Imagine Your Data Before You Collect It.” R package.
Web
Sensitivity bias in surveys
Do survey respondents answer sensitive questions truthfully? What can we do if they do not?
Graeme Blair, Alexander Coppock, Margaret Moor. “When to Worry About Sensitivity Bias: A Social Reference Theory and Evidence from 30 Years of List Experiments.” Forthcoming, American Political Science Review.
PDF Appendices
Graeme Blair, Winston Chou, Kosuke Imai. “List experiments with measurement error.” Political Analysis, 2019.
PDF Replication
Graeme Blair, Kosuke Imai, Yang-Yang Zhou. “Design and analysis of the randomized response technique.” Journal of the American Statistical Association, 2015.
PDF Replication
Graeme Blair, Kosuke Imai, Jason Lyall. “Comparing and combining list and endorsement experiments: Evidence from Afghanistan.” American Journal of Political Science, 2014.
PDF Replication
Graeme Blair, Kosuke Imai. “Statistical analysis of list experiments.” Political Analysis, 2012.
PDF Replication Appendices
Research tools
Graeme Blair and Kosuke Imai. “list: Statistical Methods for the Item Count Technique and List Experiment.” R package.
Web
Graeme Blair, Yang-Yang Zhou, and Kosuke Imai. “rr: Statistical Methods for the Randomized Response Technique.” R package.
Web
Teaching
POL SCI 50: Comparative Politics (undergraduate lecture). Winter 2017, 2018, 2020.
I am part of the cross-university teaching collaboration Democratic Erosion. The last third of POL SCI 50 focuses on democratic erosion from a comparative perspective.
POL SCI 200E: Experimental Design for Social Science (Ph.D. seminar). Fall 2016, Winter 2018, Fall 2019, Fall 2020. Syllabus
POL SCI 240a/b: Comparative Politics Field Seminar (Ph.D. seminar). Fall-Winter 2016-17, 2019-20. Syllabus
Improving Designs in the Social Sciences (Ph.D. workshop), 2016-2018 (Co-convener)
Politics of Order and Development Lab (Ph.D. workshop), 2018- (Co-convener)